Best October ever? I hope you’ve been enjoying the extended summer weather, I sure have been.
The good weather has had house shoppers out in relatively high numbers the past few weeks. I’ve had an uptick in activity, agents are generally reporting receiving more inquiries on listings and open houses have been busier than they’ve been since the spring. Buyers who took a break over the summer have returned from holidays and are taking advantage of the good weather to view properties they’ve had their eye on.
Overall, the number of sales remain significantly down from historical. In Whistler between 2017-2021, the average number of sales in September was 72 sales per month. September 2022 saw 31 transactions. In Squamish between 2017-2021, the average number of sales in September was 50 sales per month. September 2022 saw 22 transactions.
Of these September transactions, in Whistler 6% of sales went for over the asking price and 74% went for under the asking price. The most resilient segment thus far, price-wise, has been condos and townhouses which can be rented nightly.
In Squamish, 9% of sales went for over the asking price and 82% went for under the asking price in September. All segments in Squamish have seen marked pull-backs in price. To illustrate, although no metric shows the full picture, median sale price is down from $1,247,000 in April 2022 to $800,000 in September, and the average sale price is down from $1,343,000 in April 2022 to $960,000 in September.
Underlying factors affecting our overall economic environment remain mostly unchanged since the spring (namely the war, inflation, and rising interest rates). It should be explicitly noted that these three factors are related and in fact, causal. Housing and consumer goods prices were already inflating at a fast pace when the war broke out, but the war has exasperated inflation by causing energy prices to skyrocket and has ushered in a post-peace era which is, and will continue to, undo many of the efficiencies afforded by a peaceful, globalized economy. Policy makers have been raising interest rates at a very fast pace because of the level of inflation we’ve been seeing, and the level of inflation that we’re seeing can now largely be attributed to the war.
So long as the geopolitical environment remains as tenuous as it currently is, policy makers will want to encourage conservative spending behaviour, tamp down our appetite for debt, and find ways to stabilize inflation. No one knows how high interest rates will go, but everyone is assuming that policy makers have learned from past mistakes of raising interest rates too high. A moderate middle ground is most likely. The ultra-low rate environment we were just in is unlikely to return anytime soon, unless our economy needs a major bump once the war resolves.
Lastly, the two-year federal ban on foreign buyers is coming into effect in January 2023. The final policy has not been established yet, but please take a moment to read up on the draft legislation here (the FAQs are most helpful): https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/media-newsroom/notices/2022/thoughts-ban-non-canadians-buying-real-estate . At this time, Squamish is likely to be included, while Whistler is not (because it is considered a recreational market).
Please reach out anytime to chat about your specific goals and how you can use this environment to your advantage. Our markets will come back around – use this time to plan out your goals and get to work on being ready to make your moves when the time is ripe. Always happy to chat about house project priorities and anything home improvement or market related.
– Lindsay
For more updates and information, follow me on Instagram @squamish_whistler_real_estate
Call me: 604-612-1484