I hope your 2024 is off to an excellent start. It’s been unusually warm, which as Canadians, many are likely enjoying. I’m missing the snow and hope we get a wet and cold spring. Our forests and reservoirs are going to need it.
Speaking of spring, housing market commentators are already trying to predict what will happen come April/May, which everyone knows are traditionally the strongest months for real estate sales. The most important predictive factor will be what happens with inflation – if it remains as sticky as it’s been, don’t expect rate cuts. However, at some point, the Bank of Canada may become willing to admit to itself that the biggest remaining factor contributing to inflation is elevated mortgage and rent costs, and that their own high policy rate is to blame.
In my eyes, the Bank is keeping rates artificially high to adequately remove the mania we saw fly out of control through the pandemic. Canadian real estate needed a day of reckoning – people needed to feel what it’s like to lose money in real estate, not just make it hand over fist. The point is being made, and it’s a lesson that a generation of real estate investors likely won’t forget.
With that said, Squamish and Whistler continue to fare quite well. Prices are down, but not substantially (see graph). My mission has been to negotiate my buying clients ahead of the curve, and so far this has been achieved. If you’re thinking of selling, remember that prices are still at historic highs. I’ll encourage you to put your best foot forward and price realistically.
Whistler saw 34 sales in January 2024, which is below the 5-year average of 52 sales in January. 82% of these sales went for under asking, 17% sold at asking price, and zero properties sold for over asking.
In Squamish, there were 18 sales in January 2024, compared to the 5-year average for January sales which is 30. Of these, 28% went for over the asking price, 16% went for asking, and 56% went for under the asking price.
Once there’s significant pain in our economy (ie. mass layoffs) and households become less successful at hiding their stress, rates will start to drop (slowly). When this will happen is a question for my crystal ball.
~ Lindsay